Texas at higher risk of hurricane making landfall amid 'busy season'

It’s shaping up to be a very active hurricane season in the U.S., and the Gulf Coast of Texas is not immune to what forecasters are predicting to be a season with several major storms and hurricanes. During the National Tropical Weather Conference, it was announced that the chance of a hurricane making landfall in Texas during the 2024 season increased over other years, indicating increased risk of a damaging storm in the Lone Star State.

On Thursday, April 4, meteorologists from across the country converged on South Padre Island to hear about what Phil Klotzbach, senior research assistant in atmospheric science for Colorado State University, predicts will be a “very busy hurricane season.” The forecast shows up to five major hurricanes making landfall in the U.S. over the coming months, marking the largest hurricane forecast Klotzbach’s office has forecast.

“We are forecasting a very, very busy hurricane season in 2024,” Klotzbach said. “23 storms. Of those 23, 11 becoming hurricanes. Of those 11, five becoming major category three, four, or five hurricanes. Compared to the long term average of 14 storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, this is the highest April forecast that we put out.”

A mixture of a warm Atlantic waters and a cold Pacific are cause for the high numbers, says Klotzbach, who said a variety of models with somewhat similar ocean temperatures and a developing La Niña weather pattern show heavier hurricane activity. So, what does this mean for Texas? Well, while the number of hurricanes slated for Texas can be tricky due to storms that can develop in the Gulf Coast, seemingly unrelated to these larger weather patterns Klotzbach is using for his predictions, he did say odds that a hurricane will make landfall in the Lone Star State are on the rise.

Showing a statistic of hurricanes that made landfall in the Gulf Coast during La Niña weather patterns – a system which forecasters have said is developing this year after a persistent El Niño pattern – Klotzbach said Texas is at a much higher risk for hurricanes this season. In a given year, when there’s no La Niña or El Niño, the Gulf Coast tends to see .7 hurricanes, meaning Texas doesn’t see a hurricane every year. While still under 1, the odds of a hurricane hitting the Lone Star State jumps to .9 during a La Niña.

Further, Klotzbach says the probability of a hurricane landing within 50 miles of Texas this hurricane season jumps from about 35-36% in any given year to a 54% chance in 2024. In all, this means there’s a roughly 50-50 chance a hurricane could make landfall in Texas this year, and odds are even leaning toward likely.

“[The National Tropical Weather Conference] is crucial for individuals in hurricane-prone areas because it offers an unparalleled opportunity to learn about the latest in storm prediction, preparation strategies, and resilience practices directly from experts,” NTWC Director Alex Garcia told MySA. “This knowledge is not just power, it’s a lifeline that can significantly reduce the impact of hurricanes on lives and property.”

The year 2005 was the one of the most active hurricane season in recorded history, according to the National Geographic Society. The 2005 hurricane season included 28 storms and 15 hurricanes. There were four Category 5 hurricanes that year, including Hurricane Katrina and Rita. 

The 1998 hurricane season remains the most deadly hurricane season in 200 years, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Hurricane Mitch was responsible for more an estimated 11,000 deaths in Central America, NCEI reports. 

Hurricane season typically stretches from June 1 to November 30, but the peak season in Texas for hurricanes is from August through September, according to NWS. 

“Hurricane alley” refers tot he section of warm water the Atlantic Ocean that stretches from Northern Africa’s west coast, to Central America’s east coast, and the Gulf Coast of the United States, according to World Atlas. The states most at risk for being hit by hurricanes are Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Texas, North and South Carolina, and all of the states up the East Coast through Canada, according the Hurricane Risk Index score provided by FEMA.